Reporting Out --
South Korea

This project takes as its starting point where we have left off with Origins of the Modern World, i.e., the early 21st century. It is designed to get students thinking about countries outside of the ‘big three’ [i.e., India, China and Japan] and to think more broadly about connections within Asia.

Project Video

Description: Our project dives into the topic of Korean reunification, an on-going issue that should require more attention and cooperation within the two Koreas and that of the outside world. This topic raises many questions such as "Do citizens of the two countries think the same as their leaders?", "What is the right system for both countries after reunification?" or "Would North Korea keep its promise to denuclearize?" Through the videos, we'll present to you some facts about the Korean War, some statistics from surveys on North and South Korean people , and some good responses from our street interviews.

Korean Reunification

By Nhi L. and Bram R.

1200px-Unification_flag_of_Korea_(pre_2009).svg.png

The Report

Project Notes

We take notes from all the sources and compile them into one large document.

South Korea Project

Notes

An End to the Korean War

[1] Stangarone, Troy. “10 Issues to Watch for on the Korean Peninsula in 2022.” Korea Economic Institute of America, 3 Feb. 2022, https://keia.org/the-peninsula/10-issues-to-watch-for-on-the-korean-peninsula-in-2022/.

[1] President Moon Jae-in called for an “End of War Declaration” in his September 21, 2021, address to the United Nations General Assembly. The Declaration had not appeared by the end of the year, so there likely will be pressure from the Blue House to issue it before Moon’s term ends in 2022. The Biden Administration has not rejected the proposal, saying that it takes seriously all suggestions from close allies, including South Korea, but has not endorsed it either. The issue could cause some friction if Washington fails to go along with the Declaration. Seoul has tried to allay Washington’s concerns by saying that the Declaration would have no legal or policy implications, it is simply to nudge North Korea to resume negotiations. Korean and American critics of the proposal say that it could pave the way for North Korea or China to urge an end to joint military exercises or even a withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Peninsula. If peace has been achieved, why would they need to remain? For its part, North Korea has said that it would require concrete concessions for it to agree to an End of War Declaration. Pyongyang is demanding an end to ‘hostile policies,’ not an adjustment to the status of the Armistice.

History

[1] “Korean War.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 13 Nov. 2022, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War.

[1] June 1950 - July 1953

SK - "625 War"

NK - "Fatherland Liberation War"

Japan annex Korea 1910-1945

August 1945 USA & USSR divide Korea into two occupation zones (USSR north, USA south)

1948 Cold War tensions lead to occupation zones became two sovereign states (socialist state NK, capitalist state SK)

Both sovereignties lay claim to be the legitimate government of all of Korea

NK invade SK on 25 June 1950 China & USSR backed NK, UN/USA backed SK

Political talks did not occur because UN did not recognize PRC & USSR boycotted UN for recognizing ROC (?)

War resulted in a stalemate and an armistice on 27 July 1953

DMZ was created

No peace treaty was signed

Technically still at war

Current Works

[1] Staar, Benedikt. “A New Arms Race on the Korean Peninsula?” – Foreign and Security Policy | IPS Journal, IPS Journal, 16 Nov. 2022, https://www.ips-journal.eu/topics/foreign-and-security-policy/a-new-arms-race-on-the-korean-peninsula-5966/.

[1] “It is highly unlikely that North Korea will respond to economic incentives from South Korea. For one, Yoon has already stressed that there will be economic aid only after steps towards nuclear disarmament, which North Korea has always rejected. For another, even former US President Donald Trump – from the far stronger negotiating position of the US – failed to reach an agreement with North Korea based on economic cooperation. Kim Jong-Un can simply afford to refuse economic aid.”

What does N.K. think?

[1] Rinaudo, Carlotta. “Korean Reunification (Ii): What Does Pyongyang Really Think?” Strife, 16 Jan. 2022, https://www.strifeblog.org/2021/03/05/korean-reunification-ii-what-does-pyongyang-really-think/.

[2] NationalGeographic. “Dictator's Dilemma (Full Episode) | North Korea: Inside the Mind of a Dictator.” YouTube, YouTube, 30 Apr. 2022, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qRxNYuR2c4.

[1] unification popular in North Korea is strong amongst the population. The North Korean government is not necessarily opposed, suggesting the “Democratic Federal Republic of Koryo” - “one country, two systems” model similar to what China and Hong Kong used to have. Both sides have their reservations. North Korea is weak politically, socially, and economically compared to South Korea and fears that it will lose all power. It is also against US presence on the peninsula, demanding withdrawal of US military presence. Political elites also fear persecution. A situation similar to US/Iraq could occur if North and South unified. South Korea is cautious of the economic costs of integrating the North (demilitarizing and denuclearizing) as well as what to do with their political elites. The US is a major military ally of South Korea. Not only would South Korea be against the withdrawal, but also the US (as it is a strategic point to counter Chinese threats.)

CSIS

Korea

[1] “A View Inside North Korea”

https://beyondparallel.csis.org/a-view-inside-north-korea/

[1] A study (50 participants) commissioned by Beyond Parallel of North Koreans currently living inside the country found 68% North Korean respondents do not see the United States as North Korea's enemy.

Beneficial to the reunification?

- Findings contrast with surveys of defectors arriving in S.K.

[2] North Korean on unification (02/2018)

https://beyondparallel.csis.org/unification-north-koreans-hope-near-future/

[2] 94.4% feels unification is necessary → the people want but are not heard

[3] North Korean Thoughts on Nuclear Program (03/2018)

https://beyondparallel.csis.org/devils-weapons-ordinary-north-koreans-think-nuclear-program/

[3]

72% did not think nuclear weapons make them a prosperous country
70% say nuclear program is not the source of national pride
“Nuclear weapons are the devil’s weapons and will lead to our extinction.” – A North Korean mid-career soldier from a province bordering China.
“It’s crazy. The people are struggling, but Kim Jong Un only thinks about himself.” – A middle-aged woman heading an Inminban neighborhood association.
On the other side, 7 of 50 feel positively toward nuclear weapons
- A young teacher from one of the northern provinces felt positively toward the program and thought it was indeed a source of national pride. She explained “The reason why the big countries like America, Japan, and China have not been able to touch us is because of our nuclear weapons, so developing them is imperative.”

Vietnam’s Politic of a Divided Nation: From the

Reunification to DoiMoi (Renovation) and Its

Implication for the Korean Peninsula and North

Korea

Vietnam’s Politic of a Divided Nation: From the Reunification to Doimoi ... https://kinu.or.kr/pyxis-api/1/digital-files/3a35f2fd-694c-4dd8-aa8d-0063051a6650.

Korea's Reunification from the Perspective

of Northeast Asia’s Economic Integration

Korea's Reunification from the Perspective of Northeast Asia’s Economic ... https://www.e-jei.org/upload/X425844088710388.pdf.

How will external powers affect Korean reunification?

Tovar, Suzanne M. “How Will External Powers Affect Korean Reunification?” Calhoun Home, Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1 Sept. 2005, https://calhoun.nps.edu/handle/10945/10050.

(Very very very scholarly indeed)

Effects on the big countries as result of inter-Korean or multilateral diplomacy:

Japan: Japan would give a big investment and aid to North and South Korea to bring North Korea into the market economy. Eventhough the unified Korea’s economy could threaten Japan’s market, Japan is advised to still help Korea because repercussions could happen for Seoul, Tokyo and other regions. “The rise of Korean nationalism” could be a big concern for Japan because the unified Korea could turn to China for assistance if there is conflict between Korea and Japan.
China: China is worried that a precedent would be set with regards of involving outside powers to help with Korea’s unification because this precedent could be a big problem for China in its relationship with Taiwan.
Russia: There are many economic opportunities for Russia after Korea unification because Russia has a relationship with both North and South Korea. If Russia can link the trans-Siberian railroad through the Korean peninsula, it would open up markets in Europe and Asia to each other. If agreements (construction of gas pipeline, establishment of joint venture, joint development of magnetite and coal deposits) between Russia and DPRK are reached, Russia could become a desired partner for the unified Korea. This could benefit Russian economy.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/20047938.pdf?refreqid=excelsior%3A8f00ab7760749c7e9ed7d7f0f9031763&ab_segments=&origin=&acceptTC=1

Hastening Korean Reunification

Girard, Bonnie. “Would Korean Reunification Threaten China?” – The Diplomat, For The Diplomat, 23 June 2018, https://thediplomat.com/2018/06/would-korean-reunification-threaten-china/.

Lee, Chung Min. “A Peninsula of Paradoxes: South Korean Public Opinion on Unification and Outside Powers.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 13 May 2020, https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/05/13/peninsula-of-paradoxes-south-korean-public-opinion-on-unification-and-outside-powers-pub-81737.

South Korea inevitably needs both the U.S. and China
“Most South Koreans, nearly 69 percent, felt that the two Koreas should be unified without foreign intervention, and 57.2 percent of those who opposed foreign involvement believed that it would undermine their independence and sovereignty”
How South Koreans deal with the idea of unification emotionally and psychologically is different from how they cognitively reason it.
“the tyranny of geography accounts for such discrepancies: South Korea’s closest ally, the United States, lies 10,000 kilometers away, while its closest and most powerful neighbor, China, shares a border with the Korean Peninsula. Perhaps no other nation faces such daunting geopolitical choices as South Korea as it confronts the specter of unification and how a unified Korea would interact with the two great powers.”

“What If” section

[1] https://www.csis.org/programs/korea-chair/korean-unification

[1] Internal migration will be more chaotic than external migration

[2] Re-establishing health infrastructure will be challenging

N.K. still struggles with dangerous diseases: measles, T.B., smallpox, cholera

[3] Transitional justice must be viewed as reconciliation, not revenge

Should give people a chance

[4] Economic opportunity could exist under the shambles

N.K. has natural resources (e.g. coal) that the South could benefit
Labor workforce of the North and capital & management of the South could work together
Entrepreneurship of North Korean people

[5] Unification as a driver of regional peace and cooperation

Northeast countries could benefit from the reunification
Requires help from other countries (U.S., Japan, China, Russia)
Could cause a short-term cost but could also result in enormous benefit for the region.

Project Script

From the notes, we take the essential information to create a script for the video.

Introduce topic:

Former South Korean president Moon Jae-in called for an “End of War Declaration” to reunite the Korean peninsula in his address to the United Nations General Assembly in September of 2021.
As of yet, there have been no signs of the process moving forward. But the conversation on reunification has reentered debate.
Korean and American critics of the reunification say that it could have major consequences on the US and South Korea militarily in the region because North Korea or China would urge an end to joint military exercises or even a withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Peninsula.
But how did we get here in the first place?

Brief History of Korean War:

In 1910 Japan annexed Korea as a part of its imperial expansion.
In August of 1945 shortly after the surrender of Japan in World War II, the United States and the Soviet Union divided Korea into two occupation zones, the Soviet Union in the North and the United States in the South.
In 1948, as a result of Cold War tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union, the occupation zones became two sovereign states; a socialist North Korea and a capitalist South Korea.
Both sovereignties claimed to be the legitimate government of all of Korea.
The Korean War, also known as the 625 War to South Koreans, and the Fatherland Liberation War to North Koreans started on the 25th of June, 1950 with the North Korean invasion of South Korea in an attempt to reunify the Korean Peninsula under one government.
This quickly became a conflict of interest for the Soviet Union, China, and the United States.
The Soviet Union and China backed North Korea and the United States with UN aid backed South Korea, each looking to maintain physical and political control in the region.
The war resulted in a stalemate and an armistice on 27th of July 1953. Subsequently a DMZ was created.
No peace treaty was ever signed and thus technically the two Korean nations are still at war.

What do they think about reunification? North Korea vs. South Korea

There is a lot of hesitancy, but neither state is either opposed or against reunification.
The North Korean government has suggested the “Democratic Federal Republic of Koryo” which would operate as a “one country, two systems” type thing similar to what China and Hong Kong used to have in the 80s.
North Korea has not expressed interest in a one nation, one government model.
They are aware that they are weak politically, socially, and economically compared to their southern counterpart and fear that they will lose all power.
South Korea is open to reunification, after all it is them that are calling for it.
However, it is cautious of the economic burdens they would have to face as the dominant system to integrate and modernize the North as well as what to do with political elites and Kim Jong-un.

How about people inside North Korea? Do they think the same as their leader?

Several studies conducted by Beyond Parallel, a research organization funded by the Center for Strategic and International Studies Korea Chair, have shown that the North Korean population is more open to the idea of reunification than their leader Kim Jong-un.
A 2016 survey of 36 North Koreans found that 94% thought unification was necessary.
Beyond Parallel conducted another survey the year following in 2017 about North Korean opinions on the US.
The survey with 50 North Koreans found that 68% of them did not see the United States as the enemy Kim Jong-un claims they are.
Because the South is the dominant system, the North would most likely integrate into the Southern democratic system in the event of reunification, much like East Germany did with West Germany in 1990.
This would mean the North would have to adopt the South’s nuclear weapons free policy, which the North Korean government is strongly opposed to.
But North Korea’s population says otherwise.
A survey of 50 North Koreans found that more than 70% were open to denuclearization, stating either that they did not think nuclear weapons was a prosperous industry or that it was not a source of national pride.

What do South Korean people think about unification/ feel about North Korea?

Between 2017 and 2018, Seoul National University Institute for Peace and Unification Studies conducted surveys asking participants about different options for unification. During this time period, “support for a form of compromise between the two countries’ systems fell by 10.4%” while “preference for maintaining two separate systems increased by 10.3%”.
A similar result was found from a Carnegie Endowment For International Peace survey, which showed 47.6% of participants supporting “some form of maintaining separate political systems”. The results from these two surveys strongly suggest South Korean’s support for keeping two separate systems is quite high.
On the topic of denuclearization, 56.7% of respondents said they are not confident at all about North Korea giving up its nuclear weapons. Of these respondents, 63.9% are South Korean progressives, suggesting even those who strongly support reunification are not very confident about their neighbor’s nuclear plan.
The Carnegie survey also provided statistics on Kim’s favorability ratings among South Koreans as of August 2019, showing that South Korean people “had very negative feelings toward Kim [Jong-un] until the beginning of 2018”. When the inter-Korean summit began in April 2018, Kim’s favorability ratings skyrocketed from 10% to 31% by May. However, by November 2019, the number had dropped down to 9%.

Interview(?)

Questions:
- Who am I speaking with?
  - What do you know about the Korean War?
    - Did you know that they are technically still at war?
      - What are your thoughts on the possible reunification of North and South?

What would happen if the two countries reunify?

From what we know, there is no historical example of reunification of two states as “completely different as North and South Korea”. The closest example is the reunification of Germany in 1990, but Korean reunification is different from German unification in that the system East Germany was governed by had experienced clear defeat and the population had voted to be absorbed by West Germany.
But as we can see the North Korean system has not met clear defeat and it is very unlikely that a North Korea governed by Kim Jong-un would want to be absorbed by South Korea. Korean reunification also relies on cooperation of nations such as the United States, China, Japan, and Russia which adds another level of complexity to the matter. To put it simply, we can only wait and see what happens.

Project Annotated Bibliography

A New Arms Race on the Korean Peninsula? https://www.ips-journal.eu/topics/foreign-and-security-policy/a-new-arms-race-on-the-korean-peninsula-5966/. Accessed 29 Nov. 2022.

The author discusses the policy towards North Korea of the new elected South Korea president, Yoon Suk-yeol, and comments that the policy is a failed policy because it has similar goals of the previous ones, which did not work out. It is difficult for President Yoon’s policy to come true as it requires a political change in Pyongyang, which cannot be “simply exchanged for economic support.” The author suggests the EU should act quickly rather than later because the arms race and other aggressive actions between North Korea and South Korea could potentially affect the global economy and its safety.

Korean Unification | Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.csis.org/programs/korea-chair/korean-unification. Accessed 29 Nov. 2022.

The video from this source discusses long-term transitional issues that will come out of unification of the Korean peninsula. There are five big issues North Korea, South Korea, and surrounding countries should focus on, which are the increase of internal migration, the challenge of re-establish health infrastructure, reconciliation, economic opportunity, and regional peace and cooperation. Readers can trust on the validity of these long-term issues because they come from a number of discussions of experts from different disciplines and regions. The video shines a positive light on the economic opportunities coming out of North Korea after reunification, which comments on the entrepreneurship of North Korean people, and it could benefit the Korean peninsula economy.

“Korean War.” Wikipedia, 28 Nov. 2022. Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Korean_War&oldid=1124410564.

The source gives readers the background, the history of the Korean War, and the effects of the aftermath. As the Korea War is often considered a Forgotten War, this source offers stories and events from different sides (North Korea, South Korea, U.S., USSR, China, Japan) in the war that contributed to the war from 1950 to 1953. One of the important topics discussed in this source is war crimes. War crimes (massacres) were committed by both sides, South Korean and North Korean forces, and the U.S. military was also found guilty of that later.

“On Unification: North Koreans’ Hope for the (Near) Future.” Beyond Parallel, 8 Feb. 2018, https://beyondparallel.csis.org/unification-north-koreans-hope-near-future/.

A small study conducted in North Korea by Beyond Parallel asking 36 North Korean ordinary citizens about unification. Two important statistics appear in the results, which show 34 out of 36 respondents (94%) think unification is necessary, and 15 of those 34 (44.1%) respondents say shared ethnicity is the reason for reunification. Even though the sample pool is small (36 people), readers should keep in mind the setting of the interviews, which is in North Korea where these respondents could be easily arrested and jailed. This study is important to readers’ understanding of North Korea because the people do not always think the same as their leader despite the fact they are portrayed as loyal citizens.

Rinaudo, Carlotta. “Korean Reunification (II): What Does Pyongyang Really Think?” Strife, 5 Mar. 2021, https://www.strifeblog.org/2021/03/05/korean-reunification-ii-what-does-pyongyang-really-think/.

In this article, the author mainly discusses the issues/ concerns in North Korea that pose huge obstacles to reuniting with South Korea. The author points out North Korea would be a weaker partner in the union, which is a big fear for the political elites in North Korea because of the intrusions of the United States, the suppression of North Korean ideology, and their personal authority. The author notes predicting a national reunification is not an easy task as there are numerous conditions that have to be met on both sides. While North Korean elites would most likely want to keep their power and authority after reunification, South Korean leaders are unlikely to accept U.S. withdrawal from the peninsula.

Stangarone, Troy. “10 Issues to Watch for on the Korean Peninsula in 2022.” Korea Economic Institute of America, 3 Feb. 2022, https://keia.org/the-peninsula/10-issues-to-watch-for-on-the-korean-peninsula-in-2022/.

This article provides several important issues in the Korean peninsula concerning South Korea politics, U.S.-Korea relations, pandemic in North Korea, end of the Korean War, etc. Within these issues, the authors discuss the political polarization in South Korea, especially during the presidential election, between older and younger generations as well as men and women and how that will shape the concept of citizenship of South Korean people. The topic of the end of the Korean war is also discussed, saying the Biden Administration has not rejected nor endorsed the proposal of an “End of War Declaration” from (then) President Moon Jae-in. On the other hand, North Korea says it would require concessions for it to agree on the proposal.

“The Devil’s Weapons: What Ordinary North Koreans Think about Their Nuclear Program.” Beyond Parallel, 2 Mar. 2018, https://beyondparallel.csis.org/devils-weapons-ordinary-north-koreans-think-nuclear-program/.

This article is another study conducted by Beyond Parallel about North Korean citizens on the nation's nuclear program. The participant pool was 50 respondents, which was larger than that of the study published in February 2018 (36 respondents). The majority of the respondents (43 out of 50) have “ambivalent to highly negative attitudes towards the nuclear program happening in North Korea. This statistic could be a surprise to many readers because the outside world rarely has a chance to hear what North Korean citizens actually think about their country and leader. The author and the organization interview different respondents, who vary across occupations (Party officials, security officers, farmers, merchants, etc.), suggesting a consensus among North Korean citizens of their nation. The group did a nice job of carrying out the interviews and was able to elicit responses (truthful and surprising) from the respondents, despite the dangerous circumstances they were in.

Reporting Out -- South Korea